Polymarket’s CFTC licence didn’t end the fight. Ten US states are now litigating whether event contracts are swaps or wagers, and a circuit split is heading toward the Supreme Court.
Ooki DAO showed what happens without a wrapper: joint and several liability for every participant. Wyoming, Marshall Islands, ADGM and RAK DAO options, and where the structural trap lies.
Prediction markets have exploded from a niche concept to a $63 billion industry. But the regulatory picture across the US, UK, Europe, and beyond is deeply fragmented. Haider Ali, Associate at Esquare Legal, breaks down what this means for operators building in the space.